Celestial Moon
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2023 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/07/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 04/09/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/11/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |