8
Norfie
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 92
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |