Penny Loafer
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-12-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 03/10/2024 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 06/12/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 22/12/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 01/02/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 07/03/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |