3
Sin Permiso
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 89
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 30/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |