Broadway Musical
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 9
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 31/08/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |