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13

Forty Seven Smoker

3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 13

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 24/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 39 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 39 par24/10C9OR 39C9 @ Laurel Park 07/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 41 · 5f110y Fm 115 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 41 parC9 @ Laurel Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11725/04C9C9 @ Laurel Park 22/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y 118C9 @ Laurel Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Gd 11830/05C9C9 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 119C9 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 119 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 60 par9/07C9OR 60C9 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 66 · 5f110y Fm 119 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 66 parC9 @ Delaware Park 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f Gd 119 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 66 par14/08C9OR 66projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-08-09Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-07-09Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-13Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-30Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-22Laurel Park?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1022/059/0714/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 4-15 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
07/11/20255th33/10%64%+0.64
25/04/20263rd3/184%82%-0.02
22/05/20269th4/179%0%-0.79
30/05/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
13/06/20262nd5/493%88%-0.06
09/07/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
09/08/20265th9/153%64%+0.11
14/08/20264th9/488%50%-0.38