4
Meredithslightning
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |