7
Paynted By Nancy
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/11/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 27/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 13/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |