1
Alvy
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 20/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |