2
Aztec
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |