3
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7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |