Pediatrician

4yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 66

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Laurel Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-08	Colonial Downs	?	10th	11th	−1	1.0
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-21	Charles Town	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-06-06	Charles Town	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2025-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength0%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/05/2025	11th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/06/2025	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
27/06/2025	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/07/2025	8th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
06/06/2026	6th	13/2	66%	17%	-0.49
21/06/2026	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
23/07/2026	5th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
08/08/2026	10th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
12/09/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18