2
Ecliptical Gina
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 79
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |