6
Happy This Day
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |