8
Set Ablaze
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-09-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-06-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 25/05/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 15/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |