4
Trinity
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 63
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |