3

Fast Fall

6yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 72

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Turfway Park 05/01/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/01/2024 · OR 82 par5/01C7OR 82C5 @ Mountaineer 06/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/05/2024 · OR 85 parC5 @ Mountaineer 24/06/2024 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 87 · 7f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/06/2024 · OR 87 par24/06C5OR 87C6 @ Mountaineer 08/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 85 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2024 · OR 85 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/10/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark07/10/2024 · OR 84 par7/10C8OR 84C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/11/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark04/11/2024 · OR 85 parC8 @ Mountaineer 30/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m 124 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 83 par30/07C8OR 83C8 @ Mountaineer 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 7f 124 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Mountaineer 06/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 7f Fas 124 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 68 par6/09C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Mountaineer?7th7th0
2026-08-23Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-07-30Mountaineer?8th8th0
2024-11-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2024-10-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2024-09-08Mountaineer?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/018/0930/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/01/20248th20/10%30%+0.30
06/05/20243rd3/184%60%-0.24
24/06/20245th7/163%20%-0.43
08/09/20244th14/126%25%-0.01
07/10/20249th50/10%27%+0.27
04/11/20248th33/10%30%+0.30
30/07/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
23/08/20262nd20/10%80%+0.80
06/09/20267th20/10%0%0.00