1
Carnival Rock
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 92
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |