Eldest Son
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 103
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |