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5

Gone Boy

4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 86

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 01/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 59 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark01/02/2025 · OR 59 par1/02C6OR 59C9 @ Aqueduct 19/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 51 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark19/04/2025 · OR 51 parC5 @ Mountaineer 17/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 1m Gd 116 · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 58 par17/06C5OR 58C1 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 75 parC6 @ Mountaineer 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 1m 118 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 73 par22/09C6OR 73C5 @ Mountaineer 29/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 77 · 1m 118 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Mountaineer 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f 120 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 77 par27/04C6OR 77C6 @ Mountaineer 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 124 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Mountaineer 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 6f 122 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 84 par20/08C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Mountaineer?1st1st0
2026-08-09Mountaineer?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-27Mountaineer?2nd3rd−1
2025-10-29Mountaineer?1st1st0
2025-09-22Mountaineer?1st2nd−1
2025-08-04Mountaineer?7th2nd+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/024/0827/0420/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/02/20257th33/10%0%0.00
19/04/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
17/06/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
04/08/20257th40/10%14%+0.14
22/09/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
29/10/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
27/04/20262nd9/153%75%+0.22
09/08/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
20/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07