8
Lucky Jeremy
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 92
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |