2
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5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 93
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 8-9 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |