3
Uncle William
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 38% | -0.53 |