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4

Valentine Bug

9yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 92

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 102 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 102 par22/09C7OR 102C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 6f 123 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 99 · 1m 123 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 99 par8/10C6OR 99C8 @ Mahoning Valley 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Mountaineer 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 96 par7/06C8OR 96C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 6f 123 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 91 · 6f 123 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 91 par25/08C8OR 91C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Mountaineer 27/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 7f Fm 124 · below its mark27/09/2026 · OR 90 par27/09C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Mountaineer?2nd5th−3
2026-09-19Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-25Presque Isle Downs?3rd6th−3
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-06-07Mountaineer?7th10th−3
2025-11-03Mahoning Valley?5th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/093/1125/0827/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20253rd8/158%50%-0.08
29/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
08/10/20256th15/890%0%-0.90
03/11/20255th6/168%20%-0.48
07/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
17/06/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
25/08/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
19/09/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
27/09/20262nd5/493%80%-0.13