7
Xiao Long
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |