7
Hot Cocoa
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 27% | -0.60 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |