8
Red Royalty
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 62
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 12-14 · tight 84/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |