5
Reign In My Heart
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 38
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 73/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength1%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2024 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 19/03/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 19/04/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/07/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |