9
Something Sweet
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 49/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -22.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 24/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |