8
Green Empress
2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 103
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium Des Pouliches (fillies' Group 1) · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 58/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -28.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |