6
Nevermindtherain
2yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 95
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium Des Pouliches (fillies' Group 1) · 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | 1 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | ? | 5th | 14th | −8 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 5th | 14th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength25%
Delivery trend +11.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |