14
Agiota
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 10
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y
#10
Rank
Odds
70/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Dieppe | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 11-16 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 29/09/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/09/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |