1
Blue Brother
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 13
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 18th | 19th | −1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2024 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.08 |
| 13/08/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/10/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 18/06/2025 | 18th | 13/2 | 66% | 41% | -0.24 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 59% | -0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |