Colombier

6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 16

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲2

Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.8

Today: 1

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-29	Goodwood	3	6th	8th	−2	1.6
2026-07-11	Newmarket	2	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-18	Royal Ascot	2	12th	13th	−1	1.0
2026-06-05	Epsom Downs	2	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-01	Ascot	3	10th	12th	−2	1.0
2024-09-22	Fontainebleau	?	1st	5th	−4	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 32/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength59%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/09/2023	6th	7/1	63%	17%	-0.46
30/09/2023	6th	16/1	16%	44%	+0.29
09/08/2024	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
22/09/2024	1st	5/6	96%	100%	+0.04
01/05/2026	10th	10/3	82%	10%	-0.72
05/06/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
18/06/2026	12th	22/1	0%	59%	+0.59
11/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	67%	+0.19
29/07/2026	6th	16/1	16%	74%	+0.58