13
Fast Raaj
8yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 12
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y
#13
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 1 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 12-16 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 10/09/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |