15
Ivory Spring
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 8
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 12th | 14th | −2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/01/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 55% | -0.28 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 15% | -0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |