Profumo Di Iena

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y

#15

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#15

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARK

Move▬

Strength21%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.4

Today: 1

Class gap: -0.4

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Chantilly	2	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-09-04	Chantilly	1	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-09	Deauville	?	5th	5th	+0	5.2
2026-06-23	Dieppe	2	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-05-04	Chantilly	1	6th	6th	+0	4.2
2026-04-14	Chantilly	2	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength27%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/02/2026	6th	7/2	82%	29%	-0.53
17/03/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	93%	+0.32
31/03/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
14/04/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	87%	-0.00
04/05/2026	6th	20/1	0%	29%	+0.29
23/06/2026	4th	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27
09/08/2026	5th	22/1	0%	67%	+0.67
04/09/2026	8th	17/2	55%	0%	-0.55
19/09/2026	5th	11/1	42%	73%	+0.31