16
Reve De Vallarsa
6yo Horse · 8-5 · Draw 15
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-16 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 30/04/2026 | 11th | 2/1 | 89% | 23% | -0.66 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 05/07/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |