Siam Paragon

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 11

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Grand Handicap des Flyers Presente par RMC · 6f 211y

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

60%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.2

Today: 1

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Deauville	1	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-03	Clairefontaine	2	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-01-21	Chantilly	2	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2025-12-03	Deauville	?	6th	6th	+0	4.2
2025-11-02	Deauville	?	8th	8th	+0	2.2
2025-09-14	ParisLongchamp	?	3rd	3rd	+0	7.5

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength8%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/05/2025	2nd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
19/06/2025	2nd	7/4	91%	86%	-0.05
20/07/2025	7th	22/1	0%	33%	+0.33
14/09/2025	3rd	5/1	74%	71%	-0.02
02/11/2025	8th	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38
03/12/2025	6th	8/1	58%	64%	+0.06
21/01/2026	7th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61
03/08/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	80%	+0.54
22/08/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	83%	+0.02