9
Canena
3yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 13
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tarbes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Toulouse | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |