Chaldero

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 10

ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

16%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.8

Today: 2

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-10	ParisLongchamp	2	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-08-20	Deauville	2	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-20	Vichy	2	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-07	ParisLongchamp	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-05-24	ParisLongchamp	2	16th	16th	0	1.0
2026-04-05	ParisLongchamp	1	15th	14th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 4-15 · tight 47/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength35%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 15.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/02/2026	8th	66/1	0%	53%	+0.53
06/03/2026	8th	28/1	0%	53%	+0.53
21/03/2026	12th	10/1	47%	8%	-0.39
05/04/2026	15th	40/1	0%	22%	+0.22
24/05/2026	16th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/06/2026	9th	40/1	0%	43%	+0.43
20/07/2026	1st	14/1	26%	100%	+0.74
20/08/2026	5th	9/1	53%	71%	+0.19
10/09/2026	10th	22/1	0%	36%	+0.36