4
Chiricco
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Le Mans | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 8-15 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 15/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 20/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 10/09/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |