15
Drogo
8yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#14
Rank
Odds
60/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 3 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 05/03/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 26/03/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 02/08/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |