10
Freja
7yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 5
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 87% | +0.45 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 03/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 01/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |