1
Heybetli
4yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 4
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#12
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Chantilly | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 05/10/2025 | 18th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |