5
Laith
4yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 6
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Strasbourg | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 62/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 05/10/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 12% | -0.04 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 05/04/2026 | 17th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |