14
Nadir
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 1
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Moulins | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |