13
Premonition
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 14
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 8-15 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/01/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/02/2026 | 15th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |