2
Prince Aubois
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 8
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 94% | +0.89 |
| 27/10/2025 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 30/04/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |