12
Rozarion
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 7
ParisLongchamp · Quatar Prix du Festival des Nations Handicap · 6f 211y
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 10/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 46% | -0.43 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |